The critical part to me is Java 6u10+. If it continues to be supported on the client side then I'm fine. I don't really care about AWT/Swing/Java 2D. The crucial parts for me are fast start-up time, JRE kernel, JRE modules targeted in Java 7. JWS and applets are great too but less crucial since we have alternatives like LWJGL applets and Pulp Core.
Swing and Java2D will continue to be developed further - Oracle has a pretty big stake in this since many of its DB administration tools are written in Swing. They aren't sexy, but it would be shocking if they didn't invest further in this area or at least maintain it.
Swing's not really touched upon around these parts, but I still live and breathe Swing myself and am closely watching to see what comes of its future since I have a very vested interest in it and can't afford to see it set aside.